How well can we predict ice loads?

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Proceedings titleProceedings 18th International Symposium on Ice, IAHR'06
Conference18th International Symposium on Ice (IAHR’06), August 28-September 1, 2006, Sapporo, Japan
Pages167174; # of pages: 8
AbstractA study has been performed to investigate the general level of agreement of predicting ice loads from various international experts. The format followed that of three previous studies of this type carried out in 1988, 1994 and 1996. Four simple ice loading scenarios were developed and experts in ice mechanics were invited to predict the loads. Twenty-one Predictors took part in this study. The results show that there is a considerable improvement in agreement for loads generated by a level, first-year ice sheet on a vertical-sided structure. This improvement in agreement is attributed to new full-scale data which is publicly available. There is still a large range of predicted loads from first-year ridges (factor of five) and multi-year floes (factor of seven) interacting with a vertical-sided structure. There is a large range of disagreement (factor of over eleven) on predictions of level ice on a conicalshaped structure.
Publication date
AffiliationNational Research Council Canada; NRC Canadian Hydraulics Centre
Peer reviewedNo
NPARC number12340974
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Record identifierbe022eab-224b-46c9-be6b-41555b50c23b
Record created2009-09-11
Record modified2016-05-09
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