Estimating time to failure of cast-iron water mains

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Journal titleWater Management
IssueJune 2
Pages8388; # of pages: 6
SubjectWater mains
AbstractFactors leading to the failure of water pipes include operational conditions, design parameters, external loads (traffic, frost, etc.), internal loads (operating and surge pressures), temperature changes, loss of bedding support, pipe properties and condition, and corrosion pit geometry. Any attempt to estimate the condition of a pipe would involve considerable uncertainty due to large spatial and temporal variability that is inherent in information about such factors. Estimation of time to failure is made further difficult by the uncertainties in determining future corrosion rates. In this paper, corrosion models and a previously developed analytical model based on Winkler-type pipe-soil interaction are used to estimate time to failure. Since available data are insufficient to establish credible probability distributions, uncertainties in the input data/parameters are handled using possibility theory and fuzzy arithmetic. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to identify the critical data/parameters that merit further investigation.
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AffiliationNRC Institute for Research in Construction; National Research Council Canada
Peer reviewedYes
NRC number49676
NPARC number20377689
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Record identifieraedfeba6-7855-41ba-a3bd-2da8fad17e39
Record created2012-07-24
Record modified2016-05-09
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